Xiaomi has reportedly raised its full-year 2026 global smartphone shipment target back up to 110 million units, reversing two earlier cuts it made this year as memory-chip prices climbed. According to Chinese trade press, the new Xiaomi 2026 shipment target reflects an internal bet that the RAM and storage price surge squeezing the entire Android industry all year may finally be turning a corner. Xiaomi has not officially confirmed the report.
How the Xiaomi 2026 shipment target got here
The number has swung dramatically over the past six months. Xiaomi entered 2026 with an ambitious internal goal of roughly 170 million shipments — matching or slightly exceeding its 2025 volume. As memory chip (RAM and NAND storage) costs soared, it cut that goal to around 135 million units earlier in the year.
By around June 30, it cut again, this time to roughly 95 million units — a reduction Nikkei Asia reported as about 30%, leaving the target more than 40% below where it started the year. The move to 110 million, reported as of July 21, is the first increase after those two consecutive cuts. It is still far short of the original 170 million ambition, but it is a genuine reversal in direction.
The reported reasoning, attributed to people familiar with Xiaomi’s plans rather than an official statement, is Xiaomi’s internal assessment that the current memory market price surge is poised for a reversal. If prices stabilize, Xiaomi believes it can push more volume — particularly in budget and entry-level phones — while keeping costs in check.
Why it matters: the flip side of Samsung’s memory pain
This extends a storyline we have been following all year. As androidpure reported when Samsung’s phone business faced its first-ever quarterly operating loss, the same memory crunch that hit Samsung’s mobile division was driven partly by its own chip unit’s price hikes — one arm of the company profiting while another bled. We also covered Samsung quietly raising Galaxy Tab prices in India as a direct consequence of the same crunch.
Xiaomi is now effectively betting the other way — that those hikes are about to ease. There is one supporting data point: other Chinese makers, including OPPO and vivo, have reportedly pushed back on Samsung’s proposed Q3 memory price increases, a sign the industry may be nearing its tolerance limit. But that is a data point, not proof. This remains an unconfirmed trade report and an internal projection — not a confirmed market turn — and as of publication Xiaomi had not responded to requests for comment.
For context on how steep the increases have been: back in April 2026, Xiaomi President Lu Weibing said the company was paying roughly CNY 1,500 (about $205) more per unit for a 12GB RAM/512GB storage configuration than it did for the same setup in Q1 2025. That was months ago, but it illustrates the scale of the pressure Xiaomi is now betting will loosen.
What it means for buyers
Read this carefully before you take it as good news at the checkout. Despite Xiaomi’s bet on stabilizing memory costs, phone prices in 2026 have generally been going up, not down — Samsung’s Galaxy Tab India hikes and its mobile division’s own quarterly loss are evidence of that. A higher shipment target is best read as Xiaomi trying to protect its volume and market share, likely by absorbing some costs itself, rather than a signal that phones are about to get cheaper.
That distinction lands hardest where Xiaomi is strongest. Although it is now only China’s fifth-largest seller by volume, per Jiemian News’ framing, it remains a top global player thanks to India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America. The extra volume it is chasing is concentrated in budget and entry-level phones — exactly the price-sensitive markets where these buyers live. If the memory bet pays off, it most likely means Xiaomi keeps supplying affordable phones at all, not that it makes them meaningfully cheaper.
Sources: Jiemian News, Nikkei Asia
