The average smartphone sold for a record $442 in the third quarter of 2026, up 27% from a year earlier. That’s according to preliminary Counterpoint Research data published on November 3. Counterpoint expects prices to keep rising through 2027, with cost relief arriving only in 2028.
The figure is an average selling price based on wholesale prices, not what shoppers pay at the counter. The direction for buyers is still plain. Phones are costing more, and budget models face the most pressure.
Smartphone prices rose while shipments fell
Global smartphone revenue grew 3% year on year to $114 billion, even though shipments fell 19%. That 19% is Counterpoint’s updated figure. Its preliminary October estimate, which we covered in our Q3 shipments report, put the drop at 20%.
Revenue held up because each phone sold for more. Counterpoint also says brands are trimming marginal models from their ranges. For buyers, that means fewer cheap options to choose from.
Apple takes half of all smartphone revenue
Apple posted its highest-ever third-quarter revenue, up 17% year on year. It took a record 50% share of global smartphone revenue, and its average selling price rose 19%. Its shipments were nearly flat.
Counterpoint links Apple’s price gain to three things. The iPhone 18 Pro launched at higher prices, the base iPhone 18 wasn’t part of the launch, and older models got price increases in September.
Counterpoint describes this as pricing power. In practice, it argues Apple can pass rising memory costs on to buyers with little effect on demand. Put plainly, iPhone owners are the ones paying for those costs. Apple has separately said memory costs will keep rising.
Samsung, Xiaomi, OPPO and vivo
Samsung held 19% of smartphone revenue, with revenue up 14%. It stayed No. 1 by shipments with a 22% share. Its average selling price rose 21% to $367.
Counterpoint attributes Samsung’s increase to price rises across the Galaxy A series. A larger contribution from the Galaxy S26 Ultra and Galaxy Z Fold8 also helped.
Xiaomi’s revenue was flat year on year. Its average selling price still rose by double digits, as it passed on component costs and moved away from entry-level phones. The Redmi Note 15 series and Xiaomi 17T were among its top revenue drivers.
OPPO, whose figures include OnePlus and realme, saw revenue fall 26%. vivo’s revenue dropped 22%. Counterpoint says both brands prioritized margins and scaled back in non-core markets.
Counterpoint’s forecast: no relief before 2028
Counterpoint forecasts that shipment declines will outpace price growth in Q4 2026, so revenue will shrink for the quarter. Full-year 2026 revenue should still finish higher than 2025.
In 2027, Counterpoint expects elevated memory costs to keep squeezing margins and push prices up further. Shipments are forecast to fall again, though more slowly. Cost relief is expected only in 2028.
Even then, Counterpoint suggests brands may spend those savings on better hardware rather than lower prices. Senior Analyst Shilpi Jain singled out the cheapest phones as most at risk:
The entry-level segment is particularly vulnerable, as there is little room to absorb higher costs without compromising margins. For OEMs, the bigger challenge going forward will not just be defending shipment volumes but also protecting margins while keeping devices affordable.
Entry-level price hikes are already reaching shoppers. Lava phones will cost up to ₹3,000 more from November 15, and India’s Q3 shipments hit a decade low as prices rose.
Source: Counterpoint Research
